Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Math-Hammer: Vendetta with Heavy Bolters vs. Vehicles (Corrected)

by SandWyrm


From Librarium Online:
Grats on the 1000th post! (On Librarium)

I've got a question for you: Do you still have your weapon/vehicle simulator? I'd be interested to know the stat dump on a vendetta with Heavy Bolters against different kind of vehicles, and the differences in kill/disable percentages.


Thanks!

cKerensky

SandWyrm's Reply:

Sigh... you would make me modify the script for firing multiple weapon types at once. Fortunately it only took 6 lines of code. I be like... efficient and stuff. ;)

Edit 10/6/10:

Yeah, right, like it would be that easy. :)

I started doing some other tests with the modified script and noticed some wild luck fluctuations between runs that shouldn't have been there. So I re-factored the script properly and re-ran these tests. Ork Trukks got more destroyable, and Rhinos less so. Most other fluctuations were with a percentage point or two of the previous post. The results have been updated.

Here ya go...


Vendetta vs. Ork Trukk (Open-Topped AV10, 1 Weapon)

Lascannons Only:
    Stopped Target Movement: 96% (Stunned, Immobilized, Wrecked, or Exploded)
    Stopped Target Firing:   96% (Shaken, Stunned, Weapon Destroyed, Wrecked or Exploded)
    Destroyed Target:        74% (Wrecked or Exploded)
    Did Nothing to Target:   2%

Lascannons + Heavy Bolters:
    Stopped Target Movement: 98%
    Stopped Target Firing:   99%
    Destroyed Target:        85%
    Did Nothing to Target:   1%

Vendetta vs. Chimera Side/Rear (AV10, 2 Weapons)

Lascannons Only:
    Stopped Target Movement: 86%
    Stopped Target Firing:   96%
    Destroyed Target:        54%
    Did Nothing to Target:   2%

Lascannons + Heavy Bolters:
    Stopped Target Movement: 93%
    Stopped Target Firing:   99%
    Destroyed Target:        64%
    Did Nothing to Target:   1%

Vendetta vs. Rhino Front (AV11, 1 Weapon)

Lascannons Only:
    Stopped Target Movement: 80%
    Stopped Target Firing:   90%
    Destroyed Target:        45%
    Did Nothing to Target:   5%

Lascannons + Heavy Bolters:
    Stopped Target Movement: 85%
    Stopped Target Firing:   94%
    Destroyed Target:        47%
    Did Nothing to Target:   3%

(Heavy Bolters aren't going to do anything to AV12 or above, but I'll include the rest of the AV values for the sake of Vendetta-stat completeness.)

Vendetta vs. Chimera Front (AV12, 2 Weapons)

    Stopped Target Movement: 68%
    Stopped Target Firing:   81%
    Destroyed Target:        35%
    Did Nothing to Target:   12%

Vendetta vs. Leman Russ Side (AV13, 2 Weapons)

    Stopped Target Movement: 54%
    Stopped Target Firing:   68%
    Destroyed Target:        24%
    Did Nothing to Target:   24%
Vendetta vs. Leman Russ Front (AV14, 2 Weapons)

    Stopped Target Movement: 38%
    Stopped Target Firing:   51%
    Destroyed Target:        12%
    Did Nothing to Target:   42%
As you can see, Heavy Bolters add a couple of percentage points to your likelihood of killing Ork Trukks (Assuming your Chimeras' multi-lasers don't pop them first.). But it's more interesting that your chances of killing a Chimera on the side or rear goes up 24%. While your chances of killing a Rhino on the front or side go up a whopping 36%.

Yeah, the corrected numbers are more like what I originally expected. You get some decent benefit vs. AV10, but Rhinos only get a tiny bit easier to kill. Overall... meh. There's worse things to spend 10 points on, but I wouldn't make it a priority. AV10 is already pretty easy for your Chimeras to kill.

10 comments:

  1. First of all Sandwyrm, Well done sir! I never knew this program of yours existed pretty sweet.

    Just to clarify we are talking the heavy bolters being fired along with the 3 lascannons or comparing it to only 1 lascannon? if it's all 3 with the heavy bolters that's amazing, the results on the rhinos are inspiring to say the least for 10 points.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sponsons on the airplanes are a fantastic deal, you could only skip them if you are super-short on points.

    I assume there is some rounding going on in the above numbers? Otherwise the 100% statistics have gotta be wrong.

    14% boost against a Rhino to stop it moving seems awfully high, but I suppose it's not an unreasonable number.

    ReplyDelete
  3. I believe there's a problem with your mathhammer code...

    "Lascannons Only:
    Stopped Target Movement: 96% (Stunned or Immobilized)
    Stopped Target Firing: 96% (Shaken, Stunned, or Weapon Destroyed)"

    How is adding in Weapon Destroyed the same percentage?

    ReplyDelete
  4. I'm not sure about your numbers. The probability of concurrent related events should approach 100% but never reach it.

    I ran the numbers by hand. And the odds of at least stunning an Ork Truck with 1 lascannon and 6 heavy bolter shots is aprox 80%

    ReplyDelete
  5. @Rionnay

    Heh, click on the math-hammer link in the tag cloud, I have more posts like this you can look at.

    As for the tests, the comparison is between all 3 lascannons firing vs. All 3 lascannons + 2 Heavy Bolters. For AV12+ the stats are only for the lascannons, as the heavy bolters won't do anything.

    @Abusepuppy

    Yeah, I round off to the nearest whole percentage because there are luck variations that would make an exact number be always wrong.

    @DaveG

    Heh, I trust the code. The totals you see are the average over 100,000 attack rolls. So the individual numbers don't have to conform to the possible results of one roll.

    I should also have listed that wrecked & exploded results are added to the "stopped movement" category. I'll correct it.

    @CaulynDarr

    I run the test over 100,000 simulated attack rolls. That's how many tests it takes to get the luck variations under 1% (where I then round it off). The luck variation for runs of 10-20 rolls can approach 20% or more.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Blogger SandWyrm said...

    Just as an example, here's an example of 5 runs of Vendetta vs. AV14 with only 20 attack rolls per run.

    Stopped Target Movement: 25%
    Stopped Target Firing: 55%
    Destroyed Target: 5%
    Did Nothing to Target: 45%

    Stopped Target Movement: 40%
    Stopped Target Firing: 50%
    Destroyed Target: 15%
    Did Nothing to Target: 45%

    Stopped Target Movement: 20%
    Stopped Target Firing: 35%
    Destroyed Target: 15%
    Did Nothing to Target: 65%

    Stopped Target Movement: 65%
    Stopped Target Firing: 65%
    Destroyed Target: 20%
    Did Nothing to Target: 25%

    Stopped Target Movement: 40%
    Stopped Target Firing: 55%
    Destroyed Target: 20%
    Did Nothing to Target: 35%

    There's a 40-point spread between some of those results!

    ReplyDelete
  7. How about vs tougher tanks, like the Land Raider, Monolith, or those of the paper-hulled Eldar variety?

    ReplyDelete
  8. Mea Culpa Guys, I did find a flaw with the code. It's been re-factored and tested, so these results should stand.

    @#2501

    The Monolith would be the same as the Russ AV14 test. There's no benefit to survivability after the 2nd weapon is added. And that one only adds 1%, on average, to a tank's survivability.

    The Land Raider also would be the same, though POTMS would keep at least one weapon firing as long as it isn't destroyed.

    As for the Eldar, I don't have their codex.

    ReplyDelete
  9. What is the advantage of simulating rolls? Wouldn't working back from each result to find the odds of rolling the required dice give the true odds without any variance?

    ReplyDelete
  10. @Simon

    Yes, but only when you're dealing with one shot. The results from multiple shots can interact. Such as when a second immobilized result becomes either a weapon destroyed or a wreck depending on other damage done in the same salvo. It's a problem particular to the vehicle rules

    When you have those kinds of interactions going on, I find that it's easier to simply simulate things. Whereas the normal wounding of a non-vehicle squad can be calculated more traditionally without any problem.

    ReplyDelete

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